I took a week or so off just to sort of step back and watch the antics in this election cycle. The level of self-delusion among the liberal press and Obama camp is really fascinating.
They persist in using polling data from polls which have, not just consistently, but INVARIABLY used numbers equaling or exceeding the exit polls from 2008.
The assumptions necessary for them to believe that turnout for Obama in this election will equal that of 2008 rather than that of 2004 or 2010 (the most recent data point we have on voter turnout).
By last Friday, virtually every pundit or talking head that wasn't a "true" conservative was announcing that the race was over, that Romney had lost, and nothing could prevent Obama from winning.
Note: I'm talking about the likes of Joe Scarborough, George Will, Peggy Noonan, David Brooks and the other pseudo-conservatives, as well as their liberal friends . . . ie. all those who live inside the DC/New York/Boston corridor.
Get away from the echo chamber of the Northeast and out into the real world, conservatives have never lost faith. People like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt . . . and your humble author . . . have refused to be caught up in the left-wing trap of allowing negative news to demoralize us.
We read the same polls, we just don't accept the faulty premise behind them.
Today most polling results show the race within the margin of error . . . including the CNN poll which over-polled Democrats by 8%. Do the math. If Obama leads Romney in the CNN poll by 2%, then adjusting the numbers to a more realistic 4% suddenly shifts the race into the Romney wins category.
Note: The recent "swing-state" poll that showed Obama with a 10 point lead . . . polled only 160 people--total! That's worse than useless, it is downright dishonest. Anyone with even a slight familiarity with the science of statistics knows that with a representative population of 160, the poll is virtually useless--with a margin of error of over 10 points.
Clearly the point of that poll--and pretty much all the polls that are being touted in the MSM--was not to measure anything. It was intended, solely, to generate the headlines and narrative that it did.
This is not "News." This is not "informing the public." This is active campaigning for President Obama. FREE OF CHARGE. The Obama Campaign should be forced to declare "in kind" contributions for the unfettered support and enthusiastic campaigning network pundits are doing on his behalf.
Now the above calculation is simplistic and not really valid for a number of reasons. It was used for illustrative purposes only. If you want to see a more realistic picture of polls that have been corrected for the obvious bias inherent in these polls, try those at UnSkewedPolls.com.
UnSkewed Polling Data
Tuesday, October 02, 2012 3:14:58 PM
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/10 - 9/30||--||--||+6.1 D||45.8||50.0||Romney +4.2|
|CNN/ORC||9/28 - 9/30||783 LV||3.0||+3 D||46.0||50.0||Romney +4|
|ABC News/Wash. Post||9/26 - 9/29||813 LV||3.5||+3 D||49.0||49.0||Tied|
|Fox News||9/24 - 9/26||1092 LV||3.0||+4 D||46.0||44.0||Obama +2|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||+8 D||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|Reuters/Ipsos||9/12 - 9/20||1437 LV||2.9||+17.5 D||44.0||54.0||Romney +10|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||+7 D||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Monmouth Univ.||9/13 - 9/16||1344 LV||2.5||+6 D||45.0||50.0||Romney +5|
|QStarNews||9/24 - 9/28||5061 LV||1.4||+0.4 D||47.0||50.0||Romney +3|
Personally, I'm not paying attention to the polls or what the talking heads think. I'm going by my gut feeling. People feel worried. They don't see any of this so-called "recover" manifesting in their own lives. Their mortgages are still underwater, they may or may not have a job (1 in 5 don't or are working in a minimum wage, part-time job).
- They can't get loans.
- They see prices beginning to rise from all the fiat money being pumped into the economy by the Fed.
- They see a $16 Trillion debt that places a bill for $50,000 on the back of every newborn child (for services rendered to parents and grandparents).
- They look overseas and they see the formerly stable, if not altogether friendly, Middle East in complete turmoil, with so-called "democracy" movements that the Obama Administration touted and attempted to take credit for, morphing rapidly into the intolerant, Shari'a Law enforcing, Islamic caliphates the more sane among us were warning against.
- They see Iran about to become a nuclear power and President Obama standing on the sidelines, apparently cheering on the possibility, all the while paying lip-service to Israeli national security.
The majority of Americans will not reelect Obama. They see his failures, his inability, and hear his empty rhetoric--the exact same rhetoric of four years ago--and they are not fooled.
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
Romney by 5 (and maybe all the way back up to the 10 I originally predicted).
Long Live Our American Republic!!!!